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Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Nature volume 436, pages 686688 (04 August 2005) | Download Citation

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Abstract

Theory1 and modelling2 predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency3,4 and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.

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Acknowledgements

The author is grateful for correspondence with S. Camargo, C. Guard, C. Landsea and A. Sobel.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA

    • Kerry Emanuel

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Competing interests

Reprints and permissions information is available at npg.nature.com/reprintsandpermissions. The author declares no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kerry Emanuel.

Supplementary information

Word documents

  1. 1.

    Supplementary Methods

    This describes methods that were used to correct the raw hurricane wind speed data to account for changing measurement and estimation techniques over the years since airborne reconnaissance began in 1945.

  2. 2.

    Supplementary Figure S1 Legend

    Text to accompany Supplementary Figure S1.

Image files

  1. 1.

    Supplementary Figure S1

    This shows the relationship between maximum wind speed and minimum sea level pressure in the raw hurricane data, in the data corrected by using a uniform wind-pressure relation, and a final correction.

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906

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