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Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

Nature 434, 457–461 (24 March 2005) | Download Citation

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  • An Erratum to this article was published on 26 May 2005

Abstract

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

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Acknowledgements

We thank R. Dziak for answering questions about details of the hydroacoustic earthquake catalogues, D. Bohnenstiehl for suggestions on clarifying the manuscript, A. Helmstetter for her help in understanding ETAS, and V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, and L. Jones for discussions of earthquake prediction algorithms. J.J.McG. was supported by the Frank and Lisina Hoch Fund. M.S.B. was supported by the Deep Ocean Exploration Institute at WHOI. This work was supported by the NSF, SCEC and USGS.

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Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and

    • Jeffrey J. McGuire

  2. MIT-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543-1541, USA

    • Margaret S. Boettcher

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089-7042, USA

    • Thomas H. Jordan

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The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeffrey J. McGuire.

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https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03377

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