Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting

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Figure 1: The three-dimensional surface shows a forecast probability distribution of a one-dimensional quantity (global-mean warming above pre-industrial) accounting for uncertainty in the climate response, while the lines show the (smaller) impact of initial condition uncertainty in an ensemble of model simulations.

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Correspondence to David A. Stainforth.

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Allen, M., Stainforth, D. Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting. Nature 419, 228 (2002) doi:10.1038/nature01092a

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