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Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology volume 24, pages 9–16 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects’ jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20–50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79–0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in the future epidemiologic analyses.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the US National Institutes of Health (grant R37 CA70867) and the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health (contract N02 CP1101066).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA

    Dong-Hee Koh, Joseph B Coble, Patricia A Stewart, Bu-Tian Ji, Shouzheng Xue, Sarah J Locke, Wong-Ho Chow, Nathaniel Rothman & Melissa C Friesen

  2. Division of Public Health Sciences, Program in Epidemiology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA

    Parveen Bhatti

  3. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Formerly Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, now Stewart Exposure Assessments, LLC, Arlington, Virginia, USA

    Patricia A Stewart

  4. Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

    Wei Lu

  5. Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee

    Xiao-Ou Shu & Gong Yang

  6. Environmental and Occupational Health Division, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Lutzen Portengen & Roel Vermeulen

  7. Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

    Yu-Tang Gao

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  1. Dong-Hee Koh
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Correspondence to Melissa C Friesen.

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Koh, DH., Bhatti, P., Coble, J. et al. Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 24, 9–16 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2012.86

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2012.86

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