Climate extremes call for resilience and adaptation, not just repair

While residents slept, the river breached its banks. On the evening of 14 July 2021, torrential rain in western Germany’s Ahr Valley caused a 45 km stretch of destruction. Buildings, vineyards and bridges were swept downstream. The disaster, which killed 135 people in the Ahr region and caused damage worth billions of euros, was one of the biggest in Germany’s history.

As climate change worsens, extreme events like these are becoming more frequent and intense. In 2023, record-breaking heat waves, floods, wildfires and cyclones besieged parts of almost every continent.

Yet most communities remain ill prepared for a climate-altered future. “You need to have adaptation and resilience plans in place before disaster strikes,” says Jörn Birkmann, who heads the University of Stuttgart’s Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS).

According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which Birkmann helped to write, more than three billion people worldwide are highly vulnerable to climate change¹. Global urbanization, inequality and ageing populations exacerbate the potential for loss and damage.

Dynamic risks in a changing climate

Birkmann, who combines basic science with practical expertise in spatial and urban planning, has been instrumental in applying the latest research on climate resilience and vulnerability to reconstruction efforts in the Ahr Valley. The federal and state government has allocated €30 billion for reconstruction in and around the Ahr Valley, only a fraction of which has been spent. While the main objective of the reconstruction fund is to compensate for actual loss and damage, IREUS is helping to make sure that the fund also contributes to increasing resilience to future events.

Birkmann believes that achieving climate resilience requires a new way of thinking about rebuilding. “It's important not just to reconstruct the past, but to prepare for the future,” he says.

Adaptation measures being explored include moving the most vulnerable groups and sensitive infrastructures to higher ground. Birkmann finds it problematic that, for example, one county in the Ahr Valley can get funds to repair a flood-damaged school, but not to relocate the school to reduce future flood risk. Local officials are using IREUS research² to lobby for funds to do just that.

Part of the issue, as Birkmann sees it, is the lack of concrete targets for adaptation planning. “What are scientifically well-grounded goals and standards for resilience building or adaptation after extreme events?” he asks. “What is the type of construction, the type of space you need to give for future flooding?” These types of questions should be front and centre in crafting adaptation policy at all scales of government, he adds.

Making a difference

IREUS’s research helps local groups and governments across the world prepare for unprecedented conditions. In Thailand, for example, a team including Birkmann and IREUS researcher Joanna McMillan collaborated with planners to rewrite policies to account for flooding risks as cities expand into floodplains³.

“These projects with local partners involve research at the cutting edge of the current discussion about adaptation and planning,” says McMillan. The institute is working in several other countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, France and the Philippines.

That global, forward-thinking vision is part of what drew McMillan, a PhD student from Australia, to the institute. It is also the reason why the IPCC invited Birkmann and McMillan to serve as two of the co-authors of the AR6. “It was a great experience to be involved in such an important international scientific effort,” she says.

McMillan values the opportunities the institute gives her to work with colleagues from different backgrounds to devise solutions to humanity’s greatest challenge. “We’re seeing climate-related risks more and more,” she says. “But if we act now and plan for them, then we can make a big difference in reducing the consequences.”