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There’s a 66% chance that the annual global average temperature will hit 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial temperatures at some time in the next five years, according to a World Meteorological Organization report released on 17 May. Reaching 1.5 ºC of warming in a single year will be a landmark moment for the planet, which in 2022 was about 1.15 ºC warmer than in pre-industrial times. But it’s not quite the milestone most people mean when they talk about 1.5 ºC of warming — for that, we probably have about a decade to go.