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Declining crop yields limit the potential of bioenergy

Global-warming projections that rely on bioenergy strategies to offset carbon dioxide emissions could be unduly optimistic, according to a study that accounts for how climate change affects crop yields.
  1. Gernot Wagner

    1. Gernot Wagner is at Columbia Business School, New York, New York 10027, USA.

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  2. Wolfram Schlenker

    1. Wolfram Schlenker is at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA.

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Climate change is beset with unpleasant surprises1. Yields of maize (corn), wheat, rice and soya beans all fall precipitously when temperatures exceed certain thresholds — for example, 29 °C for maize2. These four staple crops together account for 75% of the calories consumed by humans3, so the non-linear temperature dependence of their yields calls for rapid action to avoid the tipping points, either by limiting the carbon dioxide emissions that are warming the planet4 or by relocating crop fields on a vast scale — probably both. But efforts to curb global warming rely increasingly on the use of plant biomass to reduce emissions, and introduce a feedback loop that endangers attempts to meet essential climate goals, as Xu et al.5 report in a paper in Nature.

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Nature 609, 250-251 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02344-0

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Competing Interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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