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Delta’s rise is fuelled by rampant spread from people who feel fine

A health worker takes a swab from a resident.

People in Qingdao, China, are tested for COVID-19.Credit: AFP via Getty

People infected with the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 are more likely to spread the virus before developing symptoms than are people infected with earlier versions, suggests a detailed analysis of an outbreak in Guangdong, China1.

“It is just tougher to stop,” says Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong and a co-author of the study, which was posted on a preprint server on 13 August.

Cowling and his colleagues analysed exhaustive test data from 101 people in Guangdong who were infected with Delta between May and June this year, and data from those individuals’ close contacts. They found that, on average, people began having symptoms 5.8 days after infection with Delta — 1.8 days after they first tested positive for viral RNA. That left almost two days for individuals to shed viral RNA before they showed any sign of COVID-19.

A dangerous window

An earlier study2 and an unpublished analysis by Cowling and others estimate that before Delta emerged, individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 took an average of 6.3 days to develop symptoms and 5.5 days to test positive for viral RNA, leaving a narrower window of 0.8 days for oblivious viral shedding.

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doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02259-2

References

  1. Kang, M. et al. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.12.21261991 (2021).

  2. Xin, H. et al. Clin. Inf. Dis. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab501 (2021).

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