Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.


How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond

Illustration of a line of people walking through a jungle that is filled with Sars-CoV-2 virus.

Illustration by Ana Kova

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type



Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Nature 584, 22-25 (2020)



  1. Rahmandad, H., Lim, T. Y. & Sterman, J. Preprint at SSRN (2020).

  2. South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium. Estimating Cases for COVID-19 in South Africa: Long-term National Projections (SACEMA, 2020); available at

    Google Scholar 

  3. Nouvellet, P. et al. Report 26: Reduction in Mobility and COVID-19 Transmission (Imperial College London, 2020).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Kennedy, D. M., Zambrano, G., Wang, Y. & Neto, O. P. J. Clin. Virol. 128, 104440 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Acuña-Zegarra, M. A., Santana-Cibrian, M. & Velasco-Hernández, J. X. Math. Biosci. 325, 108370 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Santana-Cibrian, M., Acuna-Zegarra, M. A. & Velasco-Hernández, J. X. Preprint at medRxiv (2020).

  7. Hellewell, J. et al. Lancet Glob. Health 8, e488–e496 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Moriyama, M., Hugentobler, W. J. & Iwasaki, A. Annu. Rev. Virol. (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Neher, R. A., Dyrdak, R., Druelle, V., Hodcroft, E. B. & Albert, J. Swiss Med. Wkly 150, w20224 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Ly, H. et al. Cell Rep. 31, 107725 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Kwok, K. O., Lai, F., Wei, W. I., Wong, S. Y. S. & Tang, J. W. T. J. Infect. 80, e32–e33 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Flaxman, S. et al. Nature (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Havers, F. P. et al. J. Am. Med. Assoc. Intern. Med. (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Kissler, S. M., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y. H. & Lipsitch, M. Science 368, 860–868 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Zhao, J. et al. Clin. Infect. Dis. (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Wu, L.-P. et al. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13, 1562–1564 (2007).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  17. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint (CIDRAP, 2020); available at

    Google Scholar 

  18. Davies, N. G. et al. Nature Med. (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references


Latest on:

Nature Careers


Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing


Quick links