Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen P.

doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

COMMENT
29 January 2020

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.

Zeke Hausfather⁰ &
Glen P. Peters¹

Zeke Hausfather
1. Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, California, USA.
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Glen P. Peters
1. Glen P. Peters is research director at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway.
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A rainbow forms behind wind-farm windmills near rain-soaked Interstate 10, Palm Springs, California — Falling costs for generating clean electricity have led to a proliferation of wind farms, such as this one near Palm Springs, California. Credit: David McNew/Getty

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More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.

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Nature 577, 618-620 (2020)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

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[1] Moss, R. H. et al. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

[2] Riahi, K. et al. Climat. Change 109, 33 (2011).
Article Google Scholar

[3] van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Climat. Change 109, 5 (2011).
Article Google Scholar

[4] Pörtner, H.-O. et al. (eds) IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC, 2019).
Google Scholar

[5] Ho, E., Budescu, D. V, Bosetti, V., van Vuuren, D. P. & Keller, K. Climat. Change 155, 545–561 (2019).
Article Google Scholar

[6] Ritchie, J. & Dowlatabadi, H. Energy Econ. 65, 16–31 (2017).
Article Google Scholar

[7] International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2019 (IEA, 2019).
Google Scholar

[8] Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

[9] Friedlingstein, P. et al. J. Clim. 27, 511–526 (2014).
Article Google Scholar

[10] Lenton, T. M. et al. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

[11] Peters, G. P. et al. Nature Clim. Change 3, 4–6 (2013).
Article Google Scholar

[12] O’Neill, B. C. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Article Google Scholar

[13] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018).
Google Scholar

[14] Weber, C. et al. Nature Clim. Change 8, 845–848 (2018).
Article Google Scholar

[15] United Nations Environment Programme. Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UN, 2019).
Google Scholar

[16] King, D., Schrag, D., Dadi, Z., Ye, Q. & Ghosh, A. Climate Change: A Risk Assessment (Univ. Cambridge, 2015).
Google Scholar

[17] Morgan, M. G. & Keith, D. W. Climat. Change 90, 189–215 (2008).
Article Google Scholar

[18] Tàbara, J. D., St. Clair, A. L. & Hermansen, E. A. T. Environ. Sci. Pol. 70, 31–37 (2017).
Article Google Scholar

[19] Riahi, K. et al. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Article Google Scholar

[20] van Ruijven, B. J. Clim. Change 138, 361–367 (2016).
Article Google Scholar

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

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