Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • COMMENT

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.
  1. Zeke Hausfather

    1. Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, California, USA.

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed  Google Scholar

  2. Glen P. Peters

    1. Glen P. Peters is research director at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway.

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed  Google Scholar

A rainbow forms behind wind-farm windmills near rain-soaked Interstate 10, Palm Springs, California

Falling costs for generating clean electricity have led to a proliferation of wind farms, such as this one near Palm Springs, California. Credit: David McNew/Getty

More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Nature 577, 618-620 (2020)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

References

  1. Moss, R. H. et al. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Riahi, K. et al. Climat. Change 109, 33 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Climat. Change 109, 5 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Pörtner, H.-O. et al. (eds) IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC, 2019).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Ho, E., Budescu, D. V, Bosetti, V., van Vuuren, D. P. & Keller, K. Climat. Change 155, 545–561 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ritchie, J. & Dowlatabadi, H. Energy Econ. 65, 16–31 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2019 (IEA, 2019).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Friedlingstein, P. et al. J. Clim. 27, 511–526 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Lenton, T. M. et al. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Peters, G. P. et al. Nature Clim. Change 3, 4–6 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. O’Neill, B. C. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Weber, C. et al. Nature Clim. Change 8, 845–848 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. United Nations Environment Programme. Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UN, 2019).

    Google Scholar 

  16. King, D., Schrag, D., Dadi, Z., Ye, Q. & Ghosh, A. Climate Change: A Risk Assessment (Univ. Cambridge, 2015).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Morgan, M. G. & Keith, D. W. Climat. Change 90, 189–215 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Tàbara, J. D., St. Clair, A. L. & Hermansen, E. A. T. Environ. Sci. Pol. 70, 31–37 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Riahi, K. et al. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. van Ruijven, B. J. Clim. Change 138, 361–367 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Subjects

Latest on:

Nature Careers

Jobs

  • Principle Investigator

    Talented individuals with a passion for algorithm development and clinical informatics, AI in health sciences, real-world data analytics, AI for dr...

    Shanghai, China

    Intelligent Medicine Institute, Fudan University

  • Postdoctoral Fellow – Cancer Metabolism

    At Moffitt Cancer Center, we come face-to-face with cancer every day, but we also see courage. And it inspires us to be the safest and best place f...

    Tampa, Florida

    H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute

  • STAFF SCIENTIST 1

    POSITION INFORMATION: The National Library of Medicine’s (NLM), National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) is recruiting for a Staff Scie...

    Bethesda, Maryland (US)

    National Institutes of Health/National Library of Medicine

  • PhD Student (m/f/d) Positions

    The Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt am Main is one of the largest universities in Germany with around 44,000 students and with about 5,...

    Frankfurt am Main, Hessen (DE)

    Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

  • Embrace Discovery: Scientists, Principal Investigators, Professors, Researchers, Postdocs Wanted!

    We sincerely invite you to build a new highland of medicine together!

    Yiwu, Zhejiang, China

    International School of Medicine, Zhejiang University

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing

Search

Advanced search

Quick links