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Why the US–China trade war spells disaster for the Amazon

An analysis of global soya-bean production forecasts massive deforestation in Brazil — stakeholders must act fast to prevent it, warn Richard Fuchs and colleagues.
  1. Richard Fuchs

    1. Richard Fuchs is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

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  2. Peter Alexander

    1. Peter Alexander is a lecturer at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK, and at the Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, Edinburgh, UK.

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  3. Calum Brown

    1. Calum Brown is a senior research fellow at the IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

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  4. Frances Cossar

    1. Frances Cossar is a postdoctoral research associate at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK.

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  5. Roslyn C. Henry

    1. Roslyn C. Henry is a postdoctoral research associate at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK.

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  6. Mark Rounsevell

    1. Mark Rounsevell is professor of land-use change in the Helmholtz Recruiting Initiative at the IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, and professor of rural economy and sustainability at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK.

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Soy fields border untouched Cerrado forest in the Matopiba region of Brazil

Fields of soya beans (left) sit alongside untouched natural forest in the Cerrado ecoregion of Brazil. Credit: Marizilda Cruppe/Greenpeace

Last year, the United States introduced tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese imported goods worth US$250 billion. In retaliation, the Chinese government imposed tariffs of 25% on $110-billion worth of US goods — including soya beans, a crop mainly used for animal feed. As a result, exports of US soya beans to China dropped by 50% in 2018, even though the trade war began only midway through the year.

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Nature 567, 451-454 (2019)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-00896-2

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  2. Supplementary Information - Data

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