Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • NEWS FEATURE

How the next recession could save lives

Death rates have dropped during past economic downturns, even as many health trends have worsened. Researchers are scrambling to decipher lessons before the next big recession.
  1. Lynne Peeples

    1. Lynne Peeples is a science journalist in Seattle, Washington.

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed  Google Scholar

Notorious gangster Al Capone attempts to help unemployed men with his soup kitchen in 1930.

Soup kitchens sprang up around the United States at the onset of the Great Depression in the 1930s, including this one in Chicago, Illinois, run by notorious gangster Al Capone. Credit: Bettmann/Getty

In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York’s Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country’s history didn’t correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people — babies included — died when the economy prospered1.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Nature 565, 412-415 (2019)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-00210-0

References

  1. Ogburn, W. F. & Thomas, D. S. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 18, 324–340 (1922).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Sydenstricker, E. Milbank Mem. Fund Q. Bull. 11, 273–280 (1933).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Granados, J. A. T. & Ionides, E. L. Health Econ. 26, e219–e235 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Regidor, E. et al. Lancet 388, 2642–2652 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. de la Fuente, V. S. et al. J. Safety Res. 48, 77–85 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Ruhm, C. Q. J. Econ. 115, 617–650 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Davis, M. E. Am. J. Publ. Health 102, 1951–1956 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Ruhm, C. J. J. Health Econ. 24, 341–363 (2005).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Ásgeirsdóttir, T. L., Corman, H., Noonan, K., Ólafsdóttir, Þ. & Reichman, N. E. Econ. Hum. Biol. 13, 1–19 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Arcaya, M., Glymour, M. M., Christakis, N. A., Kawachi, I. & Subramanian, S. V. Soc. Sci. Med. 110, 89–95 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Catalano, R., Dooley, D., Wilson, G. & Hough, R. J. Health Soc. Behav. 34, 215–225 (1993).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Dee, T. S. Health Econ. 10, 257–270 (2001).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Seeman, T. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 3296–3301 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. Strully, K. W. Demography 46, 221–246 (2009).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Mortensen, K. & Chen, J. JAMA Intern. Med. 173, 315–317 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Reisen, W. K. et al. J. Med. Entomol. 45, 494–508 (2008).

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  17. Kondilis, E. et al. Am. J. Publ. Health 103, 973–979 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Global Burden of Disease 2016 Greece Collaborators Lancet Publ. Health 3, PE395–E406 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. van der Wel, K., Saltkjel, T., Chen, W.-H., Dahl, E. & Halvorsen, K. Sociol. Health Illness 40, 750–768 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Burgard, S. A., Kalousova, L. & Seefeldt, K. S. J. Occup. Environ. Med. 54, 1101–1106 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Reeves, A. et al. Lancet 380, 1813–1814 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Hedegaard, H., Miniño, A. M. & Warner, M. NCHS Data Brief number 329 (2018).

  23. Murphy, S. L. et al. NCHS Data Brief number 328 (2018).

  24. Jespersen, S. T., Munch, J. R. & Skipper, L. Lab. Econ. 15, 859–884 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Reeves, A., Basu, S., McKee, M., Meissner, C. & Stuckler, D. Glob. Health 9, 43 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Subjects

Latest on:

Nature Careers

Jobs

  • Director for the Wisconsin National Primate Research Center

    The University of Wisconsin-Madison seeks a Director for the Wisconsin National Primate Research Center (WNPRC).

    Madison, Wisconsin

    University of Wisconsin-Madison Office of Vice Chancellor for Research

  • Postdoctoral Fellow

    New Orleans, Louisiana

    Tulane University School of Medicine

  • Assistant Professor

    The Department of Human Genetics at the University of Michigan Medical School (Ann Arbor, Michigan) seeks to fill two tenure-track faculty position...

    Ann Arbor, Michigan

    University of Michigan - Human Genetics

  • Assistant Professor Tenure-Track Faculty Position

    UGA seeks vibrant candidates for tenure-track Assistant Professor position in the Center for Molecular Medicine (CMM). Attractive startup package.

    Athens, Georgia

    Center for Molecular Medicine at the University of Georgia

  • Research Associate (Clinical Research)

    Houston, Texas (US)

    Baylor College of Medicine (BCM)

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing

Search

Advanced search

Quick links