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Homing in on a key factor of climate change

The sensitivity of Earth’s climate to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is a big unknown in predicting future global warming. A compelling analysis suggests that we can rule out high estimates of this sensitivity.
  1. Piers Forster

    1. Piers Forster is at the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.

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The quantity known as equilibrium climate sensitivity is crucial for understanding Earth’s future temperature1, and ongoing uncertainty about its value makes it harder to adequately prepare for the long-term effects of climate change2. This key parameter enumerates the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature that would occur if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were doubled and the climate system was given enough time to reach an equilibrium state. More than 150 estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have been published3, many of which suggest that worryingly high sensitivities are possible — including one that was published in Nature just a few weeks ago4. On page 319, Cox et al.5 use an ingenious approach to rule out high estimates. If correct, this would improve the chances of achieving internationally agreed targets for minimizing global warming.

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Nature 553, 288-289 (2018)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-00480-0

References

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