Table 3: Multivariable hazard ratiosa for melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and basal cell carcinoma with lags of 2–10 years between exposure and outcome

From: Cumulative ultraviolet radiation flux in adulthood and risk of incident skin cancers in women

 2- year lagb4- year lagc6-year lagd8-year lage10-year lagf
 No. of casesMultivariable HR (95% CI)No. of casesMultivariable HR (95% CI)No. of casesMultivariable HR (95% CI)No. of casesMultivariable HR (95% CI)No. of casesMultivariable HR (95% CI)
Melanoma
UV flux Q1950.47 (0.19, 1.19)990.96 (0.38, 2.42)810.62 (0.19, 2.04)840.50 (0.16, 1.55)720.93 (0.33, 2.59)
UV flux Q21100.64 (0.30, 1.34)1020.97 (0.47, 1.99)960.83 (0.36, 1.96)780.62 (0.27, 1.45)650.66 (0.29, 1.50)
UV flux Q31010.68 (0.41, 1.15)840.84 (0.48, 1.46)760.76 (0.43, 1.36)660.72 (0.39, 1.34)620.81 (0.45, 1.43)
UV flux Q41220.91 (0.66, 1.25)1320.92 (0.66, 1.30)1200.91 (0.63, 1.30)1150.82 (0.58, 1.18)1090.90 (0.62, 1.30)
UV flux Q51671.001391.001311.001191.001061.00
P for trend 0.14 0.74 0.40 0.19 0.61
Squamous cell carcinoma
UV flux Q1130.12 (0.05, 0.31)440.51 (0.23, 1.12)660.57 (0.21, 1.55)830.22 (0.10, 0.49)880.62 (0.30, 1.29)
UV flux Q2910.34 (0.20, 0.59)1020.51 (0.30, 0.87)1120.60 (0.33, 1.07)1140.43 (0.25, 0.75)1190.57 (0.35, 0.92)
UV flux Q31740.64 (0.45, 0.90)1650.67 (0.47, 0.94)1740.72 (0.51, 1.01)1680.40 (0.40, 0.82)1650.73 (0.52, 1.03)
UV flux Q42640.78 (0.63, 0.96)2870.87 (0.70, 1.09)2570.87 (0.69, 1.09)2480.72 (0.58, 0.89)2300.76 (0.60, 0.95)
UV flux Q55181.004601.004401.004071.003731.00
P for trend 0.0004 0.02 0.05 0.0002 0.01
Basal cell carcinoma
UV flux Q18850.50 (0.42, 0.60)19210.42 (0.35, 0.49)26500.36 (0.29, 0.44)22040.39 (0.32, 0.48)17430.65 (0.54, 0.78)
UV flux Q228820.57 (0.50, 0.66)27610.55 (0.48, 0.63)24570.53 (0.46, 0.61)22950.59 (0.51, 0.68)23110.82 (0.71, 0.94)
UV flux Q332930.79 (0.72, 0.86)28380.74 (0.67, 0.81)27790.77 (0.70, 0.85)23670.77 (0.69, 0.85)21020.87 (0.79, 0.97)
UV flux Q434870.90 (0.85, 0.96)35010.84 (0.79, 0.90)29930.85 (0.80, 0.91)28240.86 (0.80, 0.92)25740.95 (0.88, 1.02)
UV flux Q546121.0041371.0038911.0034721.0030921.00
P for trend <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0001
  1. Abbreviations: CI=confidence interval; HR=hazard ratio; UV=ultraviolet.
  2. aMultivariable analyses adjusted for age, susceptibility to burn, ability to tan, natural hair colour at age 20, number of moles on left arm, family history of melanoma, severe sunburn counts, UV indices at state of residence at birth, 15 and 30 years of age, physical activity level, and rotating night shift.
  3. bUV flux quintiles for 2-year lag analysis: Q1=200–654, Q2=656–1130, Q3=1132–1800, Q4=1802–2484 and Q5=2486–5000 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
  4. cUV flux quintiles for 4-year lag analysis: Q1=200–624, Q2=648–1128, Q3=1130–1638, Q4=1640–2260 and Q5=2262–4608 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
  5. dUV flux quintiles for 6-year lag analysis: Q1=200–580, Q2=600–1038, Q3=1040–1526, Q4=1528–2072 and Q5=2074–4216 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
  6. eUV flux quintiles for 8-year lag analysis: Q1=200–452, Q2=468–904, Q3=906–1384, Q4=1386–1872 and Q5=1874–3824 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
  7. fUV flux quintiles for 10-year lag analysis: Q1=200–436, Q2=452–872, Q3=874–1306, Q4=1308–1742 and Q5=1744–3432 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.