Trends in tumour characteristics and survival of malignant melanoma 1960-84: a population-based study in Sweden

Abstract

In Sweden, improvement in survival rates of patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma has counteracted the increase in incidence to produce a moderate rise in mortality. Our aim was to determine the possible impact of drift in diagnostic criteria, earlier diagnosis and changing biological features of the tumours upon trends in survival. We studied a stratified sample of 528 patients diagnosed between 1960 and 1984 in a strictly defined geographical region. No evidence of drift in diagnostic criteria was found. The proportion of patients with invasion level Clark II increased from 3.2% in 1960-64 to 22.5% in 1980-84, the proportion of thin melanomas (< or = 0.75 mm) increased from 9.4% to 31.5% and the tumour thickness decreased significantly between each 5 year period of diagnosis. These changes are most likely the results of earlier diagnosis. However, changes in tumour characteristics have occurred, since the proportion of superficially spreading malignant melanoma increased from 35% in 1960-64 to 51% in 1980-84 and the proportion of acral lentiginous melanoma decreased from 11% to 2%. The proportion of nodular melanomas remained fairly constant. The proportion of tumours with lymphocytic reaction did not change, whereas those with histological regression increased slightly. Proportional hazards analyses showed a significantly lower survival in patients diagnosed in 1960-64 but no apparent trend after 1965. This finding remained after adjustment for all studied clinical and histopathological factors which point towards changes in unmeasured biological features of the disease.