A combination of simulations and data shows that short-term climate trends are dominated by natural internal variations, providing a basis for climate forecasting, but not for assessing sensitivity to forced changes. See Article p.565
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Risbey, J. Free and forced climate variations. Nature 517, 562–563 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/517562a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/517562a