Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Earth science

Free and forced climate variations

Subjects

A combination of simulations and data shows that short-term climate trends are dominated by natural internal variations, providing a basis for climate forecasting, but not for assessing sensitivity to forced changes. See Article p.565

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

Figure 1: Fifteen-year temperature trends.

Notes

  1. 1.

    See all news & views

References

  1. 1

    Stocker, T. F. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 33–115 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  2. 2

    Marotzke, J. & Forster, P. M. Nature 517, 565–570 (2015).

    CAS  Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. 3

    Arguez, A. & Vose, R. S. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 92, 699–704 (2011).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. 4

    Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996).

    Google Scholar 

  5. 5

    Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl. G. A. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. 6

    Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P. & Zwiers, F. W. Nature Clim. Change 3, 767–769 (2013).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. 7

    Otto, A. et al. Nature Geosci. 6, 415–416 (2013).

    CAS  Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. 8

    Risbey, J. S. et al. Nature Clim. Change 4, 835–840 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. 9

    Meehl, G. A., Teng, H. & Arblaster, J. M. Nature Clim. Change 4, 898–902 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. 10

    England, M. H. et al. Nature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. 11

    Forster, P. M. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 1139–1150 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12

    O'Kane, T. J. et al. Ocean Model. 69, 1–21 (2013).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. 13

    Meehl, G. A. et al. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 95, 243–267 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. 14

    Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Q. J. R. Met. Soc. 140, 1935–1944 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to James Risbey.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Risbey, J. Free and forced climate variations. Nature 517, 562–563 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/517562a

Download citation

Further reading

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing