Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • News & Views
  • Published:

Climate science

A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño

Nature volume 507, pages 437–439 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Climate simulations suggest that multi-decadal periods of high and low variability in the phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be entirely unpredictable.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Decadal forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation activity.

References

  1. Wittenberg, A. T., Rosati, A., Delworth, T. L., Vecchi, G. A. & Zeng, F. J. Clim. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1 (2014).

  2. McGregor, S., Timmermann, A., England, M. H., Timm, O. E. & Wittenberg, A. T. Clim. Past 9, 2269–2284 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Li, J. et al. Nature Clim. Change 1, 114–118 (2011).

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E. & Wittenberg, A. T. J. Clim. 26, 2329–2352 (2013).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Cobb, K. M. et al. Science 339, 67–70 (2013).

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Wittenberg, A. T. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Chen, D., Cane, M. A., Kaplan, A., Zebiak, S. E. & Huang, D. Nature 428, 733–736 (2004).

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Wang, B. & An, S. Clim. Dyn. 18, 475–486 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. DiNezio, P. N. et al. J. Clim. 25, 7399–7420 (2012).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Lorenz, E. N. presented at 139th Annu. Meet. AAAS, Boston, Mass. (1972); http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Neale, R. B., Richter, J. H. & Jochum, M. J. Clim. 21, 5904–5924 (2008).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Kirtman, B. P. & Schopf, P. S. J. Clim. 11, 2804–2822 (1998).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Ault, T. R., Deser, C., Newman, M. & Emile-Geay, J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3450–3456 (2013).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Deser, C. et al. J. Clim. 25, 2622–2651 (2012).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pedro DiNezio is in the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA.,

    Pedro DiNezio

Authors
  1. Pedro DiNezio
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pedro DiNezio.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

DiNezio, P. A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño. Nature 507, 437–439 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/507437a

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/507437a

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene