If international efforts to reduce carbon emissions are delayed by another 15 years, the initial costs of limiting global warming could triple.

Gunnar Luderer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and his colleagues used a model to study 285 mitigation scenarios. They calculated the costs incurred within the first few years after implementing policies to hold temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

If such policies come into force in 2030 or later, energy prices are likely to shoot up by 80% and global economic growth might decrease by 7% in the decade following implementation.

Broad emissions reductions need to start in 2015 to keep costs moderate, the authors say.

Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034033 (2013)