Heat waves will become more common by 2040. Climate models used by Dim Coumou of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Alexander Robinson at the Complutense University of Madrid predict that about 20% of Earth's land surface will experience monthly temperatures that are more than three standard deviations from the mean. Such extremes occur over about 5% of the global land surface today, and were seen in the 2012 heat wave across the United States and in the Texan heat wave of 2011, when reservoirs nearly dried up (pictured).
The heat-wave projections stand until 2040, no matter how much more carbon dioxide humans put into the air. After that, lowered emissions could allow temperatures to stabilize, whereas maintaining current emissions would see the frequency of heat waves continue to rise.
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Global heat waves on the rise. Nature 500, 380 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/500380a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/500380a
