As you report, the case against Italy's National Commission for Forecasting and Predicting Great Risks hinges not on its inability to forecast the magnitude-6.3 earthquake that struck L'Aquila in April 2009, but on its provision of “incomplete, imprecise and contradicting information” (Nature 477, 264–269; 2011). The case highlights a central problem in Italy — the incestuous relationship between science and politics.

To some, the commission seemed more interested in pacifying the local population than in giving clear advice about earthquake preparedness.

When the American Geophysical Union and the American Association for the Advancement of Science issued statements in support of the indicted Italian scientists, I pointed out to these organizations that the international scientific community should be made aware of the real content of the indictment made by attorney Fabio Picuti before they sent statements of support to President Giorgio Napolitano. Otherwise, it would appear that the scientific community was trying to influence the Italian president on the basis of a false premise.

In Italy, a conflict of interest between some scientists and politics is the norm. In too many cases, scientists prefer to go along with, and even to defend, political decisions, rather than to act independently. Examples of this include the building of the largest civil hospital in southern Italy on the slope of Mount Vesuvius (G. Rolandi J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 189, 347–362; 2010), and plans to dispose of radioactive waste near the southern town of Scanzano Jonico — a seismic area near oil and gas fields, where the water table is close to the surface (B. De Vivo Geologia dell'Ambiente Anno XII 2, 1–8; 2004). Both cases proceeded with the support or silence of most of the Italian scientific community. There are many other such cases.

I strongly believe that scientists should clearly explain the limits of their knowledge to the public. They must provide leadership and not patronize. The most important goal has to be the protection of human life.

See also: Italian quake: critics’ logic is questionable