Many predictions of how climate change might alter species ranges don't look at the full picture, factoring in only temperature. Seth Wenger of Trout Unlimited, a conservation organization in Boise, Idaho, and his team have projected future habitat extent for three non-native and one native species of trout, taking into account flooding and the future co-occurrence of species, as well as temperature. Floods at certain times of year can wash away eggs and fry, and new species moving in can out compete others.
Using downscaled global-climate models and fish surveys from almost 10,000 sites, the team created maps predicting suitable habitat available in the inland western United States in 2080. All four species will see their ranges decline: by 77% for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), 48% for brown trout (Salmo trutta), 35% for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and 58% for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii; pictured).
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Down and trout in 2080. Nature 476, 374 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/476374a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/476374a
