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In Tyrrell's model2, competition between nitrogen-fixing and other phytoplankton controls the level of nitrate, continually pushing molar concentrations to slightly less than 16 times those of phosphate. Results of the model show that phosphate is the ultimate limiting nutrient because extra phosphate in the system supports the proliferation of nitrogen fixers that can add new nitrogen to the ocean. Even when subjected to extensive sensitivity analysis2, the model consistently predicts a deficit of nitrate in the surface layer, defined by Tyrrell as Rs<16.

Further calculations (Fig. 1) indicate that the model's prediction of a nitrate deficit in surface waters of the ocean is uncertain. Rs is very sensitive to chosen values for the Michaelis–Menten half-saturation constants for the growth of phytoplankton on nitrate (KS[NO3]) and phosphate (KS[PO4]) (NH and PH, respectively, in Tyrrell's notation). A 20% increase of KS[NO3] to 0.6 mmol m−3 from the assumed 0.5 mmol m−3 obliterates the predicted nitrate deficit, bringing RS to 16. The reported2 uncertainty in KS[NO3] is 0.1 to 4.2 mmol m−3 (ref. 3), corresponding to an RS value between 2.7 and 112 mol mol−1.

Figure 1: Influence of assumed Michaelis–Menten half-saturation constants and phytoplankton growth rates on steady-state solutions for RS, the molar ratio of nitrate to phosphate in the surface layer of the ocean (model of ref. 2).
figure 1

Nitrate deficit at the surface is indicated by RS<16 (shaded). The half-saturation constant for growth versus nitrate, KS[NO3], was varied from the specified 0.5 mmol N m−3 to obtain a range of KS[NO3]:KS[PO4], keeping KS[PO4] constant at the specified 0.03 mmol P m−3. The solution for RS against KS[NO3]:KS[PO4] is independent of KS[PO4] (equation 13 in ref. 2). The maximum growth rate of nitrogen-fixing phytoplankton, μ′NF, was maintained at 0.24 d−1, as specified in the model. The maximum growth rate of other phytoplankton, μ′O, was varied from the original 0.25 d−1, as indicated. The original model solution is identified with the open circle.

Small changes in the maximum growth rate for other phytoplankton, μ′O (d−1), compared with 0.24 d−1 for nitrogen fixers, also strongly influence RS (Fig. 1). There is little experimental basis for excluding assumed growth rates that lead to an RS value of 16.

This simple analysis, based directly on Tyrrell's model, suggests that regulation of oceanic nitrogen fixation by iron cannot be excluded as a potentially important influence on cycles of nutrients and primary productivity in the ocean.

Reply - Toby Tyrrell