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A route to more tractable expert advice

Nature volume 463, pages 294–295 (2010)Cite this article

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There are mathematically advanced ways to weigh and pool scientific advice. They should be used more to quantify uncertainty and improve decision-making, says Willy Aspinall.

When a volcano became restless on the small, populated island of Montserrat, West Indies, in 1995, there was debate among scientists: did the bursts of steam and ash presage an explosive and deadly eruption, or would the outcome be more benign? Authorities on the island, a British overseas territory, needed advice to determine warning levels, and whether travel restrictions and evacuations were needed. The British government asked me, as an independent volcanologist, to help reconcile differing views within the group.

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Figure 1: Estimates from 11 experts of the time-to-failure of an earth dam, once the core starts to leak.

SOURCE: A. J. BROWN & W. P. ASPINALL PROC. 13TH BIENNIAL BRIT. DAMS SOC. CONF. (2004)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Willy Aspinall is Cabot professor of natural hazards and risk science at Bristol University, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK. He provides expert elicitation services through his company Aspinall & Associates, Cleveland House, High Street, Tisbury SP3 6HF, UK. Willy.Aspinall@Bristol.ac.uk ,

    Willy Aspinall

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  1. Willy Aspinall
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Aspinall, W. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463, 294–295 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/463294a

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