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A route to more tractable expert advice

There are mathematically advanced ways to weigh and pool scientific advice. They should be used more to quantify uncertainty and improve decision-making, says Willy Aspinall.

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Figure 1: Estimates from 11 experts of the time-to-failure of an earth dam, once the core starts to leak.



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Aspinall, W. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463, 294–295 (2010).

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