The Montreal Protocol has been successful at phasing out ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), but scientists know that climate trends will also affect the ozone layer's recovery. New modelling work suggests this climate–ozone interaction could vary by region, hastening recovery in some areas while slowing — or even preventing — it in others.
Darryn Waugh at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, Baltimore, and his colleagues modelled climate and ozone interactions, both with and without ODS emissions, from 1960 to 2099. They found that ozone levels in the upper stratosphere recover decades earlier than expected owing to greenhouse-gas-induced cooling, which slows the chemical reactions that destroy ozone. By contrast, upwelling air masses hinder ozone formation and prevent recovery in the lower stratosphere of the tropics and southern mid-latitudes.
The authors say that these variations need to be taken into account when evaluating recovery of the ozone layer in the future.
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Atmospheric science: Ozone in a warming world. Nature 457, 939 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/457939b
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/457939b
