Correspondence | Published:

Science prediction rate would be good in gambling

Nature volume 443, page 632 (12 October 2006) | Download Citation



I was surprised to read in Don Ihde's review of David Nye's Technology Matters: Questions to Live With (Nature 442, 984; 2006) that “of the 1,500 published predictions from scientists, inventors and sociologists [historian George Wise] surveyed, only a third were fulfilled”. To be precise, I wonder at the use of the word “only”. Anyone able to predict the outcome of a horse race one out of three times could make a handsome income. It seems an impressive success rate to me.

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  1. Poynter Center for the Study of Ethics and American Institutions, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405-3602, USA

    • Kenneth D. Pimple


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