Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.


Future shock in California

For California, probabilistic principles can be applied to the short-term forecasting of further ground-shaking following an earthquake. How such predictions will be used by the public remains to be seen.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.


All prices are NET prices.

Figure 1: Variability in aftershocks for four earthquakes in California.


  1. Gerstenberger, M. C., Wiemer, S., Jones, L. M. & Reasenberg, P. A. Nature 435, 328–331 (2005).

    ADS  CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Reasenberg, P. & Jones, L. M. Science 243, 1173–1176 (1989).

    ADS  CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Evison, F. F. & Rhoades, D. A. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 36, 51–60 (1993).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Evison, F. F. & Rhoades, D. A. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 40, 537–547 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Kagan, Y. Y. & Jackson, D. D. Geophys. J. Int. 143, 438–453 (2000).

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Schorlemmer, D. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 109, B12308 doi:10.1029/2004JB003235 (2004).

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Stark, P. B. Geophys. J. Int. 131, 495–499 (1997).

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Agnew, D. Future shock in California. Nature 435, 284–285 (2005).

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI:


Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing