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Earth Science

Parkfield's unfulfilled promise

The idea that earthquakes are 'time-predictable' underlies many of today's probabilistic forecasts. In a key test on California's San Andreas fault the concept is found wanting, but the news may not be all bad.

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Figure 1: The San Andreas fault near Cholame, California.



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Correspondence to Ross S. Stein.

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Stein, R. Parkfield's unfulfilled promise. Nature 419, 257–258 (2002).

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