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Extraction of a weak climatic signal by an ecosystem

Nature volume 416, pages 629–632 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

The complexity of ecosystems can cause subtle1 and chaotic responses to changes in external forcing2. Although ecosystems may not normally behave chaotically3, sensitivity to external influences associated with nonlinearity can lead to amplification of climatic signals. Strong correlations between an El Niño index and rainfall and maize yield in Zimbabwe have been demonstrated4; the correlation with maize yield was stronger than that with rainfall. A second example is the 100,000-year ice-age cycle, which may arise from a weak cycle in radiation through its influence on the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (ref. 5). Such integration of a weak climatic signal has yet to be demonstrated in a realistic theoretical system. Here we use a particular climatic phenomenon—the observed association between plankton populations around the UK and the position of the Gulf Stream6,7—as a probe to demonstrate how a detailed marine ecosystem model extracts a weak signal that is spread across different meteorological variables. Biological systems may therefore respond to climatic signals other than those that dominate the driving variables.

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Figure 1: Correlation of observed plankton populations in and around the UK with the latitude of the Gulf Stream.
Figure 2: Trophic structure of the pelagic components of the ERSEM ecosystem model.
Figure 3: Correlation of simulated plankton populations with the latitude of the Gulf Stream.
Figure 4: Correlation of meteorological forcing and phytoplankton populations with the latitude of the Gulf Stream.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank J. Stephens and J. Dearman for assisting with the calculations. B. Clarke provided statistical advice. A.H.T. is a Fellow of the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, which provided the plankton data. This work is part of the Core Strategic Programme of Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK

    Arnold H. Taylor & J. Icarus Allen

  2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK

    Arnold H. Taylor

  3. Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9SJ, UK

    Paul A. Clark

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  1. Arnold H. Taylor
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Correspondence to Arnold H. Taylor.

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Taylor, A., Allen, J. & Clark, P. Extraction of a weak climatic signal by an ecosystem. Nature 416, 629–632 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/416629a

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