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Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models

Abstract

Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we report estimates of surface–atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.

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Figure 1: Mean estimated sources and uncertainties for two inversions.
Figure 2: CO2concentrations input to, and as fitted by, the inversion.
Figure 3: Mean sources and uncertainties for six aggregated regions and global land and ocean.

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Acknowledgements

We thank B. Stephens for comments and suggestions on earlier versions of the manuscript. This work was supported by the NSF, NOAA and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program/Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modeling Project. S.F. and J.S. were supported by NOAA's Office of Global Programs for the Carbon Modeling Consortium.

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Correspondence to A. Scott Denning.

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Gurney, K., Law, R., Denning, A. et al. Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models. Nature 415, 626–630 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/415626a

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