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Evolutionary speed limits inferred from the fossil record

Nature volume 415, pages 65–68 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

The dynamics of extinction and diversification determine the long-term effects of extinction episodes1. If rapid bursts of extinction are offset by equally rapid bursts of diversification, their biodiversity consequences will be transient. But if diversification rates cannot accelerate rapidly enough, pulses of extinction will lead to long-lasting depletion of biodiversity2,3. Here I use spectral analysis of the fossil record to test whether diversification rates can accelerate as much as extinction rates, over both short and long spans of geological time. I show that although the long-wavelength variability of diversification rates equals or exceeds that of extinctions, diversification rates are markedly less variable than extinction rates at wavelengths shorter than roughly 25 million years. This implies that there are intrinsic speed limits that constrain how rapidly diversification rates can accelerate in response to pulses of extinction.

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Figure 1: Fourier power spectra for extinction and origination rates of fossil marine families.
Figure 2: Fossil extinction and origination rates, separated into long-wavelength (> 50 Myr), intermediate-wavelength (25–50 Myr) and short-wavelength (< 25 Myr) components by Fourier filtering26.

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Acknowledgements

I am indebted to the late J. Sepkoski for his fossil databases, and to A. Weil for directing my attention to this topic and offering extensive comments on the manuscript. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation and the University of California.

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  1. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, 94720-4767, California, USA

    James W. Kirchner

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Kirchner, J. Evolutionary speed limits inferred from the fossil record. Nature 415, 65–68 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/415065a

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