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  • Epidemiology of Autism and Neurodevelopmental Disorders
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Past and future perspectives in autism epidemiology

Molecular Psychiatry volume 7, pages S9–S11 (2002)Cite this article

There have been three large autism prevalence reviews1,2,3 (Table 1). Four early studies (Table 1a–d) used Kanner's criteria to characterize children with classic autism. The first population-based study reported a prevalence of 4.5 per 10 000; the other studies reported similar prevalence rates. Two studies used Rutter's criteria (Table 1e–f), similar to Kanner's criteria, but the prevalence rates differed considerably (1.9 and 5.6 per 10 000 children). The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders III (DSM-III)4 first used the term Pervasive Developmental Disorders, which broadened the criteria, differentiating between autism and schizophrenia and describing onset as younger than 30 months. Studies using DSM-III criteria (Table 1g–o) yielded rates of 3.3 (Table 1l) to 16.0 (Table 1h) per 10 000 children. Three studies (Table 1p–r) using DSM III–R5 criteria reported rates of 10.1, 9.5, and 7.2 per 10 000 children. DSM IV6 and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10)7 criteria are consistent; however recent studies using either criterion have yielded disparate prevalence rates. 2,3

Table 1 Summary of autism prevalence from epidemiologic studies
Full size table

Few studies exist of trends in autism prevalence. Studies of two French birth cohorts (1972 and 1976) documented no change in prevalence (5.1 and 4.9 per 10 000 children).8 In Sweden, autism prevalence increased from 4.0 to 11.6 per 10 000 children from 1962–1976 to 1975–1984 (Table 1q). The Swedish investigators noted that rates of autism in children with mild mental retardation (IQ 50–70) remained relatively stable, while the rates increased in children with severe mental retardation (IQ < 50) and in children with normal intelligence (IQ > 70). They posited that changes in overall prevalence are influenced by the ability to better identify children with autism with very low, as well as normal to high, functioning. Asperger's syndrome was reported to occur in 26 to 36 per 10 000 individuals.2

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  10. Department of Developmental Services. Changes in the population with autism and pervasive developmental disorders in California's developmental services system: 1987–1998. A report to the legislature California Department of Developmental Services: Sacramento CA March 1999

  11. US Dept of Education. Number of children with autism served under IDEA, Part B, 1991–92 to 1998–99 US Department of Education, Office of Special Education Programs, Data Analysis System, data based on December 1 1996 count

  12. Dept of Health and Human Services (US). ATSDR public health assessment: Brick Township investigation. Final report Dept of Health and Human Services (US): Atlanta, GA, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry April 2000

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  1. National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    M Yeargin-Allsopp

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Yeargin-Allsopp, M. Past and future perspectives in autism epidemiology. Mol Psychiatry 7 (Suppl 2), S9–S11 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.mp.4001164

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