london

The British government has brokered a deal between Australia and developing countries in which Australia has agreed to drop its opposition to a greenhouse gas reduction protocol in return for a commitment to “significant reductions” from developing countries at a later date.

The deal was struck after a series of meetings between foreign ministry officials at the Commonwealth heads of government conference in Edinburgh, which ended on Monday (27 October).

But Australia's position remains ambiguous. Shortly after agreeing to the declaration, Prime Minister John Howard appeared on television claiming that the document amounted to a triumph for Australia, as it did not imply a commitment to legally binding emissions reductions.

Australia is opposed to these on the grounds that they would hurt the country's coal and electric power industries. It fears that jobs will be lost if Australia's power companies relocate to neighbouring South-East Asia to take advantage of more liberal rules on greenhouse gases.

Developing countries, on the other hand, do not want to reduce their emissions just yet. Some, such as India and China, are concerned about the possible adverse impact on their nascent industries. Others believe that premature discussion of developing country obligations could detract from the main purpose of the Kyoto conference, at which developed countries are due to sign a legally binding emissions reduction protocol.

Climate change was not on the initial agenda of the Commonwealth conference. But British officials realized that the meeting would be an ideal occasion to try to generate consensus between Australia and other Commonwealth countries.

Another aim was to reduce the gap between developing countries and the United States, which confirmed last week that it will commit itself to a legally binding target to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels between 2008 and 2112, but only if there is ‘meaningful participation’ from key developing countries (see previous page). Argentina has in principle agreed. But other countries — including Brazil, China and India — so far remain opposed.

Environmentalist groups are also predictably angered, although their rhetoric has lacked some of its previous fire. “President Clinton's watching a house starting to burn. He wants to do something about it, but chooses to pull out the garden hose when he really needs a water truck,” says Jennifer Morgan of the US Climate Action Network, based in Washington DC.

Some groups were optimistically expecting the United States to announce slightly more ambitious targets — perhaps a reduction in emissions to below 1990 levels — but coupled to much tougher conditions. Others, however, were privately relieved that Clinton confirmed his commitment to a legally binding target, rather than “just do nothing”.

Last week, the Group of 77 (G77) nations and China endorsed the European Union's target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 per cent by 2010. One delegate from a major industrializing country says that this will remain the G77's “bottom line” position. Another developing country delegate says that the United States will have to make concessions if there is to be agreement at Kyoto.

The G77's endorsement of the European position was due to an agreement between the Alliance of Small Island States and oil-exporting countries about the latter's demands for compensation for revenues lost as a result of the reduced demand for oil. Both groups of countries have now agreed to call for compensation for any country that suffers damage from the effects of either climate change or climate change policies.

Meanwhile, discussions this week in Bonn between the United States and developing countries — the last formal negotiations before Kyoto — have been making little headway. A two-day informal meeting before the start of the formal talks on 20 October resulted in deadlock.

Nonetheless, efforts to bring the US and developing country positions closer will continue during this week's visit to the United States by China's president Jiang Zemin. Three days of direct talks hosted by Japan are also scheduled in the second week of November.