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Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent from whaling records

Nature volume 389, pages 57–60 (1997)Cite this article

A decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent is a commonly predicted effect of a warming climate. Direct global estimates of the Antarctic sea-ice cover from satellite observations, only possible since the 1970s1,2,3,4, have shown no clear trends. Comparisons1 between satellite observations and ice-edge charts obtained from early ship records5 suggest that sea-ice extent in the 1970s was less than during the 1930s, an indication supported by limited regional observations6. But these observations have been regarded as inconclusive, owing to the limited spatial and temporal scope of the early records2. A significant data source has, however, been overlooked. The southern limit of whaling was constrained by sea ice, and since 1931 whaling records have been collected for every whale caught7, giving a circumpolar coverage from spring to autumn until 1987. Here, an analysis of these catch records indicates that, averaged over October to April, the Antarctic summer sea-ice edge has moved southwards by 2.8° of latitude between the mid 1950s and early 1970s. This suggests a decline in the area covered by sea ice of some 25%. This abrupt change poses a challenge to model simulations of recent climate change, and could imply changes in Antarctic deep-water formation and in biological productivity, both important processes affecting atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

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Figure 1: Mean approximate ice-edge latitude in Antarctica from 1931 to 1987.
Figure 2: Mean approximate ice-edge latitude in Antarctica by 10° longitudinal sector.
Figure 3: The relationship between the latitudes of the southernmost whale catches, in terms of the factory-ship noon positions, and information on.

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Acknowledgements

I thank C. Allison and staff at the International Whaling Commission for compiling these data. I also thank I. Allison, J. Heap, H. Marchant and P. Quilty for comments.

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  1. Australian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment Sport and Territories, Channel Highway, Kingston , 7050, Tasmania, Australia

    William K. de la Mare

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Correspondence to William K. de la Mare.

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Mare, W. Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent from whaling records. Nature 389, 57–60 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1038/37956

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