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Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard

Abstract

There is a 1-in-10,000 chance that a large (2-km diameter) asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth during the next century, disrupting the ecosphere and killing a large fraction of the world's population. Although impacts of this magnitude are so infrequent as to be beyond our personal experience, the long-term statistical hazard is comparable to that of many other, more familiar natural disasters, raising the question of whether mitigation measures should be considered.

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Chapman, C., Morrison, D. Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard. Nature 367, 33–40 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1038/367033a0

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