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Carbon emissions in the United States will soar to a level more than one-third higher than that in 1990 by 2010 if current trends continue, according to new official projections. The projections indicate that it will be more difficult than previously forecast to return emissions even to their 1990 level by 2010, let alone to achieve a large reduction, as many countries are demanding should be agreed at the Kyoto meeting on climate change next month (see also page 209and Briefing, page 215.)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent statistical agency inside the US Department of Energy, announced last week that, under current best projections of economic growth and energy prices, carbon emissions are forecast to exceed 1990 levels by 34 per cent by 2010 and by 45 per cent by 2020.

The projection for 2010 is five per cent higher than the agency estimated a year ago, chiefly because of continuing strong economic growth combined with lower prices for energy, especially electricity. The new data suggest it would be even tougher than expected for the United States to meet the target of reducing greenhouse-gas emission to the 1990 level by 2008-2012, which it will take to the Kyoto meeting.

The Clinton administration has already identified the pending restructuring of the US electricity industry as a key opportunity for changes that will reduce carbon emissions. But the EIA projects that restructuring will actually increase emissions by cutting electricity costs, and therefore raising consumption. It will also slow the growth of renewable energy sources of electricity.

The EIA also points out that the 44-point Climate Change Action Plan, which the Clinton administration introduced in 1993 with the aim of stabilizing greenhouse-gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, has failed to have the desired effect, and expects emissions to overshoot that goal by 17 per cent.