Abstract
Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to cause cooling of the lower stratosphere. This could enhance the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, which convert potential ozone-depleting species to their active forms. In an idealized three-dimensional numerical simulation of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere, doubling the CO2 concentration leads to the formation of an Arctic ozone hole comparable to that observed over Antarctica, with nearly 100% local depletion of lower-stratospheric ozone.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Farman, J. C., Gardiner, B. G. & Shanklin, J. D. Nature 315, 207–210 (1985).
Gardiner, B. G. Geophys. Res. Lett. 15, 901–904 (1988).
Stolarski, R. S., Bloomfield, P., McPeters, R. D. & Herman, J. R. Geophys. Res. Lett. 18, 1015–1018 (1991).
Solomon, S. Nature 347, 347–354 (1990).
Koike, M. et al. geophys. Res. Lett. 18, 791–794 (1991).
Proffitt, M. H. et al. Nature 347, 31–36 (1990).
Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, No. 4 (1990).
Granier, C. & Brasseur, G. J. geophys. Res. 96, 2995–3011 (1991).
Austin, J. & Butchart, N. J. geophys. Res. 97, 10165–10186 (1992).
Brune, W. H., Toohey, D. W., Anderson, J. G. & Chan, K. R. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 505–508 (1990).
Fahey, D. W., Kawa, S. R. & Chan, K. R. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 489–492 (1990).
Jones, R. L., McKenna, D. S., Poole, L. R. & Solomon, S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 549–552 (1990).
McKenna, D. S. et al. geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 553–556 (1990).
Austin, J. et al. J. geophys. Res. 94, 16717–16735 (1989).
SORG Stratospheric Ozone 1991 (HMSO, London, 1991).
Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J. (eds) Climate Change, the IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990).
Fels, S. B., Mahlman, J. D., Schwarzkopf, M. D. & Sinclair, R. W. J. atmos. Sci. 37, 2265–2297 (1980).
Rind, D., Suozzo, R., Balachandran, N. K. & Prather, M. J. J. atmos. Sci. 47, 475–494 (1990).
Shine, K. P. Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1331–1334 (1986).
Shine, K. P. Q. Jl R. met. Soc. 115, 265–292 (1989).
Garcia, R. R. & Solomon, S. J. geophys. Res. 88, 1379–1400 (1983).
Toohey, D. W., Anderson, J. G., Brune, W. H. & Chan, K. R. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 513–516 (1990).
Geller, M. A., Wu, M.-F. & Gelman, M. E. J. atmos. Sci. 41, 1726–1744 (1984).
Randel, W. J. Q. Jl R. met. Soc. 114, 1385–1409 (1988).
Wang, W.-C., Dudek, M. P., Liang, X.-Z. & Kiehl, J. T. Nature 350, 573–577 (1991).
Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D. & Shine, K. P. Nature 355, 810–812 (1992).
Boville, B. A. J. atmos. Sci. 41, 1132–1142 (1984).
Nagatani, R. M., Miller, A. J., Gelman, M. E. & Newman, P. A. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 333–336 (1990).
Kiehl, J. T., Boville, B. A. & Briegleb, B. P. Nature 332, 501–504 (1988).
Molina, L. T. & Molina, M. J. J. phys. Chem. 91, 433–436 (1987).
Schoeberl, M. R., Stolarski, R. S. & Krueger, A. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 16, 377–380 (1989).
Prather, M., Garcia, M. M., Suozzo, R. & Rind, D. J. geophys. Res. 95, 3449–3471 (1990).
Pitari, G., Palermi, S., Visconti, G. & Prinn, R. G. J. geophys. Res. 97, 5953–5962 (1992).
Jones, R. L. et al. Q. Jl R. met. Soc. 112, 1127–1143 (1986).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Austin, J., Butchart, N. & Shine, K. Possibility of an Arctic ozone hole in a doubled-CO2 climate. Nature 360, 221–225 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1038/360221a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/360221a0
This article is cited by
-
The Karakoram/Western Tibetan vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability
Climate Dynamics (2018)
-
The science case for the EISCAT_3D radar
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2015)
-
Ground-based millimeter-wave observations of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere over Tsukuba
Earth, Planets and Space (2014)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
