Variations in ocean–atmosphere coupling over time in the Southern Ocean1,2,3 have dominant effects on sea-ice extent and ecosystem structure4,5,6, but the ultimate consequences of such environmental changes for large marine predators cannot be accurately predicted because of the absence of long-term data series on key demographic parameters7,8. Here, we use the longest time series available on demographic parameters of an Antarctic large predator breeding on fast ice9,10 and relying on food resources from the Southern Ocean11. We show that over the past 50 years, the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) in Terre Adélie has declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult survival during the late 1970s. At this time there was a prolonged abnormally warm period with reduced sea-ice extent. Mortality rates increased when warm sea-surface temperatures occurred in the foraging area and when annual sea-ice extent was reduced, and were higher for males than for females. In contrast with survival, emperor penguins hatched fewer eggs when winter sea-ice was extended. These results indicate strong and contrasting effects of large-scale oceanographic processes and sea-ice extent on the demography of emperor penguins, and their potential high susceptibility to climate change.
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This study was supported over the past 50 years by Expéditions Polaires Françaises, Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises and by Institut Français pour la Recherche et la Technologie Française. We thank all the people involved in Terre Adélie in the monitoring programs of the Emperor penguin population, and Y. Cherel, G. Kooyman and C. Parkinson for comments on the manuscript. We thank Météo France DOM-TOM, G. Testa and M. Gaillot for the meteorological data of the station of Dumont D'Urville, Terre Adélie.
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Barbraud, C., Weimerskirch, H. Emperor penguins and climate change. Nature 411, 183–186 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35075554
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