Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Impacts
  • Published:

‘Earth system’ analysis and the second Copernican revolution

Optical magnification instruments once brought about the Copernican revolution that put the Earth in its correct astrophysical context. Sophisticated information-compression techniques including simulation modelling are now ushering in a second ‘Copernican’ revolution. The latter strives to understand the ‘Earth system’ as a whole and to develop, on this cognitive basis, concepts for global environmental management.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: A tale of two revolutions.
Figure 2
Figure 3: A ‘theatre world’ for representing paradigms of sustainable development.

References

  1. Volk, T. Gaia's body (Copernicus, New York, 1998).

  2. Winkle, S. Geißeln der Menschheit (Artemis & Winkler, Düsseldorf, 1997).

  3. de Rosnay, J. Le Macroscope (Seuil, Paris, 1975); L'homme Symbiotique (Seuil, Paris, 1995).

  4. Schellnhuber, H. J. & Kropp, J. Naturwissenschaften 85, 411–425 ( 1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Prentice, I. C. & Webb, T. J. Biogeogr. 25, 997–1005 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ganopolski, A., Rahmstorf, S., Petoukhov, V. & Claussen, M. Nature 391, 351–353 ( 1998).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Claussen, M. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2037– 2040 (1999).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Beardsley, T. Sci. Am. 273(2), 18–20 ( 1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Long, S. (ed.) Plant Cell Environ. 22 (6; spec. issue 567 –755) (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Clark, W.C. Sci. Am. 261(3), 18–26 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Blackburn, C. (ed.) Global Change and the Human Prospect (Sigma Xi, Research Triangle Park, 1992).

  12. Schellnhuber, H. J. & Wenzel, V. (eds) Earth System Analysis. Integrating Science for Sustainability (Springer, Berlin, 1998).

  13. Newton, P. Nature 400, 399 (1999).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Fisher, A. Mosaic 19, 52–59 ( 1988).

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  15. Lenton, T. Nature 394, 439–447 ( 1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Franck, S. et al. Tellus B (in the press).

  17. Broecker, W. S. & Peng, T.H. Greenhouse Puzzles (Eldigio, Palisades, 1998).

  18. Lewis, J.S. Rain of Iron and Ice (Addison-Wesley, Reading, 1995).

  19. Rampino, M. R. in Scientists on Gaia (eds Schneider, S. H. & Boston, P. J.) 382–390 (MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1993).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Crutzen, P.J. Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. Engl. 35, 1758– 1777 (1996).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Chapman, S. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 60, 127–142 (1934).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Schneider, S.H. Environ. Mod. Assess. 2, 229–249 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. http://www.gos.udel.edu/publications/select_pub.htm

  24. Coale, K. H. et al. Nature 383, 495–501 (1996).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Petschel-Held, G., Schellnhuber, H. J., Bruckner, T., Toth, F. L. & Hasselmann, K. Clim. Change 41, 303–331 (1999).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Robin, H. The Scientific Image from Cave to Computer (Abrams, New York, 1992).

  27. Petit, J. R. et al. Nature 399, 429–436 (1999)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Takahashi, T. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 94, 8292– 8299 (1997).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Walker, B., Steffen, W., Canadell, J. & Ingram, J. The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1999).

  30. Kleypas, J. A. et al. Science 284, 118–120 (1999).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Timmermann, A. et al. Nature 398, 694–697 (1999).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Saltzman, B. in Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change — Part II (ed. Schlesinger, M. E.) 737–754 (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  33. Petoukhov, V. et al. Clim. Dynamics (in the press).

Download references

Acknowledgements

I thank A. Block, M. Cassel, R. B. Cathcart, W. Cramer, H. Hoff, S. Lütkemeier, S. Rahmstorf, D. Smart, M. Stock, J. v. Braun, V. Wenzel and the entire IGBP community for intellectual and technical support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to H. J. Schellnhuber.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Schellnhuber, H. ‘Earth system’ analysis and the second Copernican revolution . Nature 402 (Suppl 6761), C19–C23 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/35011515

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/35011515

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing