Abstract
ON the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, rates of seismicity1,2 and geodetic line shortening3,4have been lower since 1986 than before. Wyss et al.1,3interpret the rate decreases as precursors to an imminent moderate earthquake (magnitude M = 5.5−6) and estimate the earthquake time to be March 1991 ± 1 yr. The earthquake was previously predicted to occur in 1988 ± 5 yr based on five of six similar earthquakes which occurred at intervals ∼22 yr, the last one in 19665. Here I present a model that attributes the rate changes to the initiation of slip on a subhorizontal detachment fault under the pending rupture area. In this model, the slip starts late in the seismic cycle, and diminishes the loading rate on the nearby San Andreas, thus acting as a buffer.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Wyss, M., Bodin, P. & Habermann, R. E. Nature 345, 426–428 (1990).
Aviles, C. A. & Valdes, C. M. Eos 70, 1228 (1989).
Wyss, M., Slater, L. & Burford, R. O. Nature 345, 428–431 (1990).
Langbein, J. O., Burford, R. O. & Slater, L. E. J. geophys. Res. 95, 2533–2552 (1990).
Bakun, W. H. & Lindh, A. G. Science 229, 619–624 (1985).
Stuart, W. D., Archuleta, R. J. & Lindh, A. G. J. geophys. Res. 90, 592–604 (1985).
Harris, R. A. & Segall, P. J. geophys. Res. 92, 7945–7962 (1987).
Langbein, J. Nature (submitted).
Wentworth, C. M. & Zoback, M. D. Tectonics 8, 237–246 (1989).
Rybicki, K. in Physics and Evolution of the Earth's Interior Vol. 3, 18–186 (Elsevier, New York, 1986).
Schultz, S. S. U.S. Geol. Sun. Open-File Rep. 89–650 (1989).
Simpson, R. W., Schultz, S. S., Dietz, L. D. & Burford, R. O. Pure appl. Geophys. 126, 665–685 (1988).
Mavko, G. M. J. geophys. Res. 87, 7807–7816 (1982).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Stuart, W. Seismic quiescence at Parkfield due to detachment faulting. Nature 349, 58–61 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1038/349058a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/349058a0
This article is cited by
-
Case 23 nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor
Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH (1997)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
