Abstract
Activity in moderate-size earthquakes accelerated in the several decades before the large California earthquakes of 1989, 1906 and 1868. This type of precursor seems to require the presence of several major faults in close enough proximity to one another that moderate-size shocks are selectively triggered on surrounding faults during the latter stages of the cycle of strain buildup to large earthquakes. It may be possible to use quantitative aspects of similar seismic precursors to make predictions of large earthquakes on timescales of a few years to one decade.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Tocher, D. Calif. Div. Mines, Spec. Rep. 57, 39–48, 125–127 (1959).
Ellsworth, W. L., Lindh, A. G., Prescott, W. H. & Herd, D. G. in Earthquake Prediction (eds Simpson, D. W. & Richards, P. G.) 126–140 (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1981).
Sykes, L. R. & Nishenko, S. P. J. geophys. Res. 89, 5905–5927 (1984).
Jaeger, J. C. & Cook, N. G. W. Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics (Chapman and Hall, London, 1969).
Voight, B. Science 243, 200–203 (1989).
Varnes, D. J. Proc. 7th Southeast Asian Geotech. Conf. Vol. 2, 107–130 (Hong Kong, 1982).
Toppozada, T. R., Parke, D. L. & Higgins, C. T. Calif. Div. Mines & Geol., Spec. Rep 135, 1–38 (1978).
Toppozada, T. R., Real, C. R. & Parke, D. I. Calif. Div. Mines & Geol., Open File Rep. 81-II SAC, 1–182 (1981).
Bolt, B. A. & Miller, R. D. Catalogue of Earthquakes in Northern California and Adjoining Areas, 1 Jan. 1910-31 Dec. 1972 (Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley, 1975).
Bulletin of Seismograph Stations Vols 43–58 (University of California, Berkeley, 1973–1988).
Plafker, G. & Galloway, J. P. (eds) US. geol. Survey, Circ. 1045, 1–48 (1989).
Uhrhammer, R. A. US. geol. Survey Open File Rep. 85-754, 199–212 (1985).
Seeber, L. & Armbruster, J. G. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 1425–1428 (1990).
Kostrov, V. V. Izv. Acad. Sci. USSR, Phys. Solid Earth 1, 23–44 (1974).
Hanks, T. C. & Boore, D. M. J. geophys. Res. 89, 6229–6235 (1984).
Dziewonski, A. M., Ekstrom, G., Woodhouse, J. H. & Zwart, G. Phys. Earth planet. Inter. 62, 194–207 (1990).
Habermann, R. E. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 77, 141–159 (1987).
Sykes, L. R. in LXXXV Corso Soc. Ital. Fis., Earthquakes (ed. Kanamori, H.) 398–435 (North Holland, Amsterdam, 1983).
Sykes, L. R. & Seeber, L. Geology 13, 835–838 (1985).
Richter, C. F., Allen, C. R. & Nordquist, J. M. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 48, 315–337 (1958).
Mogi, K. Earthquake Prediction (Academic, Tokyo, 1985).
Wong, I. V. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 80, 935–950 (1990).
Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., Kossobokov, V. & Rotwein, I. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 1461–1464 (1990).
Fedotov, S. A., Chernyshev, S. D., Chernysheva, G. V. & Vikulin, A. V. Vulcanologiia i Seismologiia 6, 52–67 (1980).
Prescott, W. H. & Yu, S. B. J. geophys. Res. 91, 7475–7484 (1986).
Furlong, K. P., Hugo, W. D. & Zandt, G. J. geophys. Res. 94, 3100–3110 (1989).
Nicholson, C., Seeber, L., Williams, P. & Sykes, L. R. J. geophys. Res. 91, 4891–4908 (1986).
Scholz, C. H. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting 353–354 (Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990).
Imamura, A. Theoretical and Applied Seismology, 182 (Maruzen, Tokyo, 1937).
Raleigh, C. B., Sieh, K., Sykes, L. R. & Anderson, D. L. Science 217, 1097–1104 (1982).
House, L. S., Sykes, L. R., Davies, J. N. & Jacob, K. H. in Earthquake Prediction (eds Simpson, D. W. & Richards, P. G.) 81–92 (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1981).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sykes, L., Jaumé, S. Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature 348, 595–599 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1038/348595a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/348595a0
This article is cited by
-
Developing a TRL-oriented roadmap for the adoption of biocomposite materials in the construction industry
Frontiers of Engineering Management (2021)
-
Modeling the earthquake occurrence with time-dependent processes: a brief review
Acta Geophysica (2019)
-
Case Studies of Seismic Energy Release Ahead of Underground Coal Mining Before Strong Tremors
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2019)
-
Turkey and adjacent area seismicity forecasts from earthquake inter-event time mean ratio statistics
Journal of Seismology (2019)
-
Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2016)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
