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Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming

Nature volume 330, pages 127–131 (1987)Cite this article

Abstract

The relationship between greenhouse-gas forcing, global mean temperature change and sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans is investigated using upwelling–diffusion and pure diffusion models. The sensitivities of sea-level to short-timescale forcing and deep-water formation rate changes are examined. The greenhouse-gas-induced thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise between 1880 and 1985 is estimated at 2–5 cm. Projections are made to the year 2025 for different forcing scenarios. For the period 1985–2025 the estimate of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is 0.6–1.0 °C. The concomitant oceanic thermal expansion would raise sea level by 4–8 cm.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80307-3000, USA

    T. M. L. Wigley

  2. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    S. C. B. Raper

  3. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    T. M. L. Wigley

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  2. S. C. B. Raper
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Wigley, T., Raper, S. Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming. Nature 330, 127–131 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1038/330127a0

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