Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

The sombre view of AIDS

Extrapolation from short-term data is risky, but the development of AIDS among those infected with HIV by blood transfusions, if properly described by a normal distribution, suggests a 15-year mean incubation and a high incidence of disease among carriers of the virus.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it


Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout


  1. Holmes, K.K. J. Am. med. Ass. 254, 2254–2257 (1985).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Lawrence, J. Scient. Am. Dec. 1985: 70–79.

  3. Blattner, W.A. et al. Ann. intern. Med. 103, 665–670 (1985).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Aitchison, J. & Brown, J.A.C. The Log Normal Distribution (Cambridge University Press, 1957).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Christiansen, J.S. et al. Diabetic Nephropathy. 4, 104–107 (1985).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Parry, H.B. Scrapie Disease in Sheep (Academic, New York, 1983).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Peterman, T.A. et al. J. Am. med. Ass. 254, 2913–2917 (1985).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Sivak, S.L. & Wormser, G.P. New Engl. J. Med. 313, 1352 (1985).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rees, M. The sombre view of AIDS. Nature 326, 343–345 (1987).

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI:

This article is cited by


Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing