Extrapolation from short-term data is risky, but the development of AIDS among those infected with HIV by blood transfusions, if properly described by a normal distribution, suggests a 15-year mean incubation and a high incidence of disease among carriers of the virus.
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Rees, M. The sombre view of AIDS. Nature 326, 343–345 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1038/326343a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/326343a0
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