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A molecular timescale for vertebrate evolution

Abstract

A timescale is necessary for estimating rates of molecular and morphological change in organisms and for interpreting patterns of macroevolution and biogeography1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. Traditionally, these times have been obtained from the fossil record, where the earliest representatives of two lineages establish a minimum time of divergence of these lineages10. The clock-like accumulation of sequence differences in some genes provides an alternative method11 by which the mean divergence time can be estimated. Estimates from single genes may have large statistical errors, but multiple genes can be studied to obtain a more reliable estimate of divergence time1,12,13. However, until recently, the number of genes available for estimation of divergence time has been limited. Here we present divergence-time estimates for mammalian orders and major lineages of vertebrates, from an analysis of 658 nuclear genes. The molecular times agree with most early (Palaeozoic) and late (Cenozoic) fossil-based times, but indicate major gaps in the Mesozoic fossil record. At least five lineages of placental mammals arose more than 100 million years ago, and most of the modern orders seem to have diversified before the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinction of the dinosaurs.

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Figure 1: Estimation of divergence times.
Figure 2: Histograms (ai) of distributions of single-gene divergence times for nine multigene time estimates, and graphs (jl) of the effects of increased stringency of the rate-constancy test (corresponding to areas of 5% (recommended), 10%, 20%, and 50%, of the χ2 rejection curve) for the same divergences.
Figure 3: A molecular timescale for vertebrate evolution.
Figure 4: Comparison of fossil-based and molecular estimates of divergence time in vertebrates.

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Acknowledgements

We thank L. Poling, A. Beausang, and R. Padmanabhan for assistance with sequence data retrieval; A. Beausang for artwork; A. G. Clark, C. A. Hass, I. Jakobsen, M. Nei, C. R. Rao, and A.Walker for comments and discussion; and L. Duret for instructions on use of the HOVERGEN database. This work was supported in part by grants to M. Nei (NIH and NSF) and S.B.H. (NSF).

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Correspondence to S. Blair Hedges.

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Kumar, S., Hedges, S. A molecular timescale for vertebrate evolution. Nature 392, 917–920 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1038/31927

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