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Observations of dilatancy-induced polarization anomalies and earthquake prediction

Nature volume 286, pages 874877 (28 August 1980) | Download Citation

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Abstract

Much of the search for earthquake prediction schemes has centred on the expectation that rocks in the impending source area will show dilatancy: the opening of cracks at high stress-levels. Recent developments in the theory of seismic wave propagation in cracked media1 demonstrate that shear-wave splitting will occur in seismic-wave propagation through cracked structures, when the cracks have any overall alignment. This splitting causes polarization anomalies in the seismograms, and it has been suggested1 that dilatancy, induced by the build-up of stress before earthquakes, might be recognized and monitored by analysis of these anomalies. We present here new observations which support this hypothesis.

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Author information

Author notes

    • J. Peter Davis

    Present address: Department of Geological & Geophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540.

    • Galia V. Yegorkina

    Present address: Institute of Physics of the Earth, Bolshaya Grouzinskaya 10, Moscow 123810, USSR.

    • Alistair Miller

    Present address: Overseas Development Administration, Eland House, Stag Place, London SW1E 5DH, UK.

Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geological Sciences, Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LA, UK

    • Stuart Crampin
    • , Russ Evans
    • , Mark Doyle
    • , J. Peter Davis
    •  & Alistair Miller
  2. Kandilli Observatory, Çengelköy, Istanbul, Turkey

    • Balamir Üçer
  3. Department of Geophysics, University of Edinburgh, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK

    • Mark Doyle

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/286874a0

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