Future sea-level changes due to West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations

Abstract

Global sea-level changes which would result from an instantaneous uniform thinning of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet are calculated and found to be nonuniform. At locations distant from the ice sheet (Hawaii, New York, the North Sea), immediate submergence would be followed by gradual emergence. At New Zealand, immediate submergence would be followed by gradual additional submergence, then slow emergence would begin after 2,500 yr. At locations close to the ice sheet (Cape Horn, the Ross Ice Shelf), the sea level would fall for 1,100 yr. then rapid submergence would start resulting in a net sea-level rise after 10,000 yr equal to about 92% of the average global rise.

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Clark, J., Lingle, C. Future sea-level changes due to West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations. Nature 269, 206–209 (1977). https://doi.org/10.1038/269206a0

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