Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Frequency of foreshocks

Abstract

IN February 1975, the Chinese Seismological Bureau successfully predicted a magnitude 7.3 earthquake near Haicheng, Liaoning Province. From their reports, it is obvious that many methods such as radon count, abnormal animal behaviour, seismic velocity, and tilt and telluric current anomalies were considered in making the long term prediction1. The short term prediction, however, was based primarily on foreshock activity2,3. That foreshocks were important in the prediction raises the question of how common they are. We here analyse the frequency of foreshocks before shallow earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7. Our findings show that 44% of all large shallow events in the world from 1950 to 1973 had fore-shocks large enough to be teleseismidally recorded, and that 21% of the large earthquakes that occurred in China between 1900 and 1949 had foreshocks large enough to be noted in local records.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Anon ., Paper distributed at Intergovernmental Conference on Mitigation of Earthquake Risk, UNESCO, Paris, February 10–19 (1976).

  2. Li, Teh-run, Earthq. Frontiers, 2, 8–9 (1975).

  3. Adams, R. D., Bull. N.Z. natn. Soc. Earthq. Engng (in the press).

  4. Zhong Guo Di Zhen Mu Lu, Chronological Tables of Earthquake Data of China, 1653 (Academica Sinica, Pekin, 1970).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Duda, S., Tectonophysics, 2, 409 (1965).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. United States Earthquakes, 1965–1973 (US Govt Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1967–1975).

  7. Evernden, J. F., Bull. Am. seism. Soc., 60, 393 (1970).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Evernden, J. F., Bull. Am. seism. Soc., 61, 241 (1971).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Immamura, A., Theoretical and Applied Seismology, 55–57 (Maruzan, Tokyo, 1937).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Richter, C. F., Elementary Sesimology (Frerman, New York, 1958).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Lahr, J., and Pomeroy, P. W., Bull. Am. seism. Soc., 60, 1245 (1970).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Su, S. S., Bull. Am. seism. Soc., 59, 459 (1969).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Allen, C. R., et al., Prof. Pap. US geol. Surv., 733, 17 (1971).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Thatcher, W. R., Science, 184, 1283 (1974).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Thatcher, W. R., J. geophys. Res., 80, 4862 (1975).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Kanamori, H., and Cipar, J., Phys. Earth planet Interiors, 9, 128 (1974).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Kanamori, H., and Anderson, D. L., J. geophys. Res., 80, 1075 (1975).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Johnston, M. J. S., and Morgenstern, C. E., Science, 186, 1031 (1974).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Scholz, C. H., J. geophys. Res., 73, 1417 (1968).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

JONES, L., MOLNAR, P. Frequency of foreshocks. Nature 262, 677–679 (1976). https://doi.org/10.1038/262677a0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/262677a0

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing