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Seasonal rainfall forecasting in West Africa


TO provide a basis for the seasonal prediction of rainfall in the Sahel, Winstanley1 presented the linear regression of June on June–September rainfall for 59 stations. This regression is statistically inappropriate. June rainfall should be taken as the independent variable and not included in both the dependent and independent variables. Though June rainfall accounts for less than 15% of the seasonal rainfall on average, it accounts for a much larger proportion of the variance. The coefficient of variation for June rainfall on the southern edge of the Sahel is about 50% but for the total rainfall it is only about 20%.

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  2. Winstanley, D., Nature, 245, 190–194 (1973).

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  3. Delsi, M., thesis, Univ. Reading (1973).

  4. Bryson, R. A., Ecologist, 3, 366–371 (1973).

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BUNTING, A., DENNETT, M., ELSTON, J. et al. Seasonal rainfall forecasting in West Africa. Nature 253, 622–623 (1975).

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