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Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing


The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century1, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation)2. Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.

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Figure 1: Global annual-average surface temperature anomalies (°C).
Figure 2: Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate trends.
Figure 3: Surface air temperature (SAT) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

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We thank J. Hansen, D. Rind and G. Russell for making available their numerical experiments, D. Thompson for providing analyses of the observations and P. Lonergan for assistance with model output. We also thank P. Stone and J. M. Wallace for their comments on earlier drafts of this Letter. G.A.S. was supported by a NOAA postdoctoral fellowship in Climate and Global Change administered by the UCAR Visiting Scientist Program. R.L.M. is supported by the NOAA Atlantic Climate Change Program. Stratospheric modeling at GISS is supported by the NASA Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program.

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Correspondence to Drew T. Shindell.

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Shindell, D., Miller, R., Schmidt, G. et al. Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature 399, 452–455 (1999).

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