Letter | Published:

Poisson's Law and the Frequency of Hurricanes

Naturevolume 183pages814815 (1959) | Download Citation

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Abstract

POISSON'S law, or the ‘law of small probabilities’ as it is sometimes called, is used at times for describing the probabilities that no, one, two, etc., particular events of a relatively infrequent character will occur in a single year. It has been used in the estimation of the probability of one or more hurricanes striking a given area, say, New England, in a year. The purpose of this communication is to point out weaknesses inherent in this treatment, and to suggest one or more alternative approaches.

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  1. Ladd Observatory, Brown University, Providence, 12, Rhode Island

    • CHARLES H. SMILEY

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https://doi.org/10.1038/183814a0

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